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South Korea and China move to normalize relations after THAAD dispute

November 1, 2017 by  
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After a year of frosty diplomacy and economic pressure, South Korea and China announced Tuesday that they would put aside their differences out of a joint desire to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the two countries will resume normal relations. “The two sides attach great importance to the Korea-China relationship,” a statement from the ministry said.

In its own coordinated statement, China’s Foreign Ministry said the two nations would work to put their relationship back on a normal track “as soon as possible.”

China and South Korea have historically deep ties and over the past few decades had enjoyed a close relationship. However, that relationship was deeply damaged last July when Seoul agreed to install the U.S.-owned Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense platform on its land.

Though both Seoul and Washington argued the THAAD system had only defensive capabilities, Beijing was concerned about U.S. encirclement as well as the system’s sophisticated radar capabilities.

Chinese President Xi Jinping was also angered that former South Korean president Park Geun-hye had sided with American interests over China, said Yun Sun, a senior associate with the East Asia Program at the Stimson Center.

“Xi had tried to sway South Korea’s alignment choice, and when Park rejected China’s demand not to deploy THAAD, it made Xi’s great diplomacy on South Korea a failure and an embarrassment,” Sun said in an email this weekend. 

When the missile system was deployed earlier this year, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, warned that Beijing would “resolutely take necessary measures to defend our security interests.”

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry acknowledged that the THAAD dispute had not been fully resolved. “The two sides agreed to engage in communication on THAAD-related issues about which the Chinese side is concerned through communication between their military authorities,” it said in a statement.

For its part, China confirmed Tuesday that its position on THAAD had not changed.

And on Sunday, South Korea’s military chief met with his American and Japanese counterparts, as part of a growing three-way dialogue.

China is South Korea’s largest trading partner, and it used this economic clout to punish Korean businesses when the antimissile system was deployed. Trips by Chinese tour groups to South Korea were suspended, with the number of Chinese visitors dropping 60 percent in the first nine months of the year compared with 2016, according to figures released by the Bank of Korea.

Korean-owned businesses also suffered boycotts and bans in China. The situation was especially difficult for the Lotte conglomerate, which had allowed its land to be used for the installation of the THAAD system. Last month, it announced it would be selling off its supermarkets in China after most were shut down for fire code violations and other alleged infractions.

President Moon Jae-in’s new South Korean government had recently made a number of moves to ease China’s anxiety over THAAD, with Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha announcing last week that South Korea would not seek any more deployments of the system. The moves had been received warmly in China’s state-run press, with the nationalist Global Times newspaper saying that the “proactive” stance of Moon’s government was “a new gesture that is welcomed.”

Choi Kang, vice president of the Seoul think tank Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said that South Korea had not offered any real concessions on the issue. “Since South Korea has maintained a very firm position on THAAD, the Chinese side decided to move instead,” Kang said. 

Instead, North Korea and other factors may have led to the agreement between the two nations, which came after the Chinese Party Congress that saw Xi consolidate his power over the country and exactly a week before President Trump arrives in South Korea as part of a 12-day Asia trip.

China is keen to restart relations with South Korea under Moon, said Sun, as he has signaled that he is seeking an independent policy and is open to talks with North Korea, a long-standing ally of Beijing. “When the relationship with President Park was beyond repair for China, Moon gives China new hope,” Sun wrote.

However, Kang said that the two sides still had different outlooks on the region that could lead to more disputes. China and South Korea felt the “necessity to manage their bilateral relations for different reasons, not for common objectives and concerns,” Kang said. “The conflict is not over yet.”

North Korea’s provocations have prompted other shifts in the Pacific, as well. In one example, the senior military officials from the United States, South Korea and Japan are incrementally increasing collective ballistic missile defense, despite strained relations between South Korea and Japan that date back to Japan’s invasion of the Korean Peninsula during World War II.

On Sunday, Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with his South Korean counterpart, Gen. Jeong Kyeong-doo, and their Japanese equivalent, Adm. Katsutoshi Kawano, at the sun-drenched headquarters of U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii.

The Japanese and South Korean defense chiefs have narrowly increased military dialogue with each other as it relates to North Korea, meeting five times since July 2014 in three-party talks with Dunford and his predecessor, Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey. On Sunday, the agreed to hold quarterly missile defense exercises in 2018, Dunford said.

Dunford said that the discussions between South Korea and Japan are important for a couple of reasons.

“Number one, from a deterrence perspective, it’s important that Kim Jong Un and [North Korea] see that they are facing a collective response from the international community, and in particular, those nations most affected,” Dunford said. “And number two, if we do have to respond, Japan is a critical ally that the United States is going to need to meet its alliance commitments. We have over 50,000 forces in Japan. It is a platform from which we would project power in any South Korean response.”

Simon Denyer in Beijing and Dan Lamothe in Washington contributed to this report.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Georgia opens at No. 1, Notre Dame at No. 3

November 1, 2017 by  
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The first College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2017 season are out and there were a lot of close decisions to sort out. There were also some inconsistencies, which is common with only nine weeks down and five weeks to go until the four playoff finalists are determined.

We will get to that in shortly, but first, let’s start with the usual disclaimer. Nothing in these rankings is meaningful in terms of where teams may be ranked at the end of the season.  It is possible that the current top four teams could win out — with the exception of an Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship Game — and still not be the top four teams at the end.  Even if they are, the order may change.  This isn’t like the top 25 polls where you hold your position unless you lose. In any given week, a team could lose and move up or win and move down.  We have seen examples of each over the first three years of this system.

Georgia edged Alabama for the No. 1 spot with its victory over No. 3 Notre Dame standing as the best win in college football this season. Clemson checked in at No. 4, while undefeateds Wisconsin and Miami start out at the bottom of the top 10 with six one-loss teams separating them from the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide. Head-to-head wins are reflected at the top of the rankings with Oklahoma, Ohio State and Penn State falling in order at Nos. 5-7.

Let’s take a look at the entire top 25. Additional analysis follows the rankings below.

College Football Playoff Rankings, Oct. 31

  1. Georgia (8-0)
  2. Alabama (8-0)
  3. Notre Dame (7-1)
  4. Clemson (7-1)
  5. Oklahoma (7-1)
  6. Ohio State (7-1)
  7. Penn State (7-1)
  8. TCU (7-1)
  9. Wisconsin (8-0)
  10. Miami (7-0)
  11. Oklahoma State (7-1)
  12. Washington (7-1)
  13. Virginia Tech (7-1)
  14. Auburn (6-2)
  15. Iowa State (6-2)
  16. Mississippi State (6-2)
  17. USC (7-2)
  18. UCF (7-0)
  19. LSU (6-2)
  20. NC State (6-2)
  21. Stanford (6-2)
  22. Arizona (6-2)
  23. Memphis (7-1)
  24. Michigan State (6-2)
  25. Washington State (7-2)

There does seem to be a strength-of-schedule theme to these rankings.  Georgia is No. 1 over No. 2 Alabama because it has played a stronger schedule to this point and has a better win.  However, No. 4 Clemson has two wins better than any of No. 3 Notre Dame’s victories, a better collection of wins overall, and at least an equal schedule with the Irish to this point.  Clemson’s loss is worse, though, and that seemed to be enough to put the Tigers below the Irish.

No. 5 Oklahoma is ahead of No. 6 Ohio State despite a significantly worse schedule overall, one which includes both Kansas and Baylor, which are a combined 1-15.  Oklahoma won at Ohio State, as we all know, but in 2014, Baylor beat TCU and had to wait until the final rankings of the season before the committee determined that their schedules were equal enough for the head-to-head to matter. Things have changed in 2017 — for this week, anyway.

I think you could quite reasonably argue that No. 8 TCU should be ahead of Oklahoma at this point.  The Horned Frogs have played a better schedule and have better wins.  Their loss to now-No. 15 Iowa State came on the road.  Oklahoma’s one good win is better than TCU’s best (at Oklahoma State) but not that much better. The Sooners get their own shot at the No. 11 Cowboys in Bedlam this week.

All that said, in the end, 12-1 Oklahoma will definitely be ahead of 12-1 Ohio State if they both get to that point.  I do not really have a problem with it being that way now either, but it is just one of those ways in which the committee is inconsistent.

Strength of schedule is definitely what held down undefeated No. 9 Wisconsin and No. 10 Miami. The Hurricanes’ schedule will get a nice boost the next two weeks when they play No. 13 Virginia Tech and No. 3 Notre Dame.  They would do very well to still be undefeated after that.  Wisconsin’s strength of schedule is pretty much doomed.  They won’t play a team in the current rankings until the Big Ten title game.  The only teams they have played so far with a record above .500 are Northwestern and Florida Atlantic.

UCF blew away the record for the highest debut for a Group of Five team.  The Knights came in at No. 18.  East Carolina, which was No. 22 in the first CFP Rankings of 2014, held the previous high mark.

One of the unfortunate byproducts of this playoff system is that everyone focuses on conferences, specifically which one(s) are left out of the top four.  It’s a game of musical chairs: five major conferences, four seats.  This is really about teams, though, not conferences.

In the rankings this week, the Big 12, Pac-12 and Big Ten are all left out because two SEC teams are in the top four along with Notre Dame.  There is a lot of football left to be played, though.  Even for the Pac-12, which has No. 12 Washington as its top-rated team, there is still hope.  Oklahoma started 15th in 2015 and made the playoff.  Ohio State started 16th in 2014 and didn’t just make the playoff, it won the national championship.

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