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We’re seeing institutions start to waver as constraints to Trump’s impulses

January 6, 2018 by  
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President Trump with Attorney General Jeff Sessions during the FBI National Academy graduation ceremony in Quantico, Va., on Dec. 15. (Evan Vucci/AP)

Of the various revelations littered throughout the interview President Trump gave the New York Times last month at Mar-a-Lago, few were as sweeping in their implications as his comments about former attorney general Eric H. Holder Jr.

“I will say this: Holder protected President Obama,” Trump said. “Totally protected him. When you look at the IRS scandal, when you look at the guns for whatever, when you look at all of the tremendous, ah, real problems they had, not made-up problems like Russian collusion, these were real problems. When you look at the things that they did, and Holder protected the president. And I have great respect for that, I’ll be honest, I have great respect for that.”

There are two important aspects to that. The first is that Trump clearly sees the job of attorney general as, in part, protecting the president from scrutiny and criminal investigation. (This is not part of the job.) The second and perhaps more important aspect is that Trump thinks that the Internal Revenue Service and gun-walking scandals were “real problems,” unlike the “made-up” investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

For those unfamiliar, the two issues mentioned by Trump relate to the IRS’s scrutiny of applications for nonprofit status from conservative groups and an effort by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives to trace illegal gun sales by allowing certain sales to take place. Over the course of Barack Obama’s eight years in office, each was elevated to the position of Major Scandal by the conservative media (to the extent that each is mentioned in Texas Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert’s infamous Hillary-Clinton-is-linked-to-Russia flowchart) — in part because of a general dearth of other, meatier Obama scandals to fixate on.

Often missing from conservative coverage of the issues was important bits of context, such as that the IRS also isolated nonconservative groups for additional scrutiny. Inspectors general from the IRS and Department of Justice identified shortcomings and errors exposed in each case and recommended changes. In neither case were the identified errors tied back to an action by Obama, much less a scandalous one.

Trump, an avid consumer of conservative media, doesn’t seem to have pored over those IG reports. Instead, he seems to have internalized a narrative that was common on Fox News during the Obama administration: The IRS and “Fast and Furious” scandals (as the gun-walking issue was known) were near-Watergate-level misdeeds by Obama and his team. That narrative depended on and fostered a central idea: that Obama was necessarily corrupt. Assume that and you readily accept the idea that there was a nefarious intent behind the incidents — or that the incidents were intentionally downplayed and covered up by the president and his cronies. That’s the heart of Trump’s argument.

This is essential context for Trump’s presidency broadly — but the week’s news in particular.

We learned a few things this week. We learned that, after Trump’s inauguration, the FBI revived an investigation into the Clinton Foundation, apparently looking at whether donations to the nonprofit were connected in any way to official actions by Clinton while she served as secretary of state.

We learned that the Justice Department may also be considering a new review of Clinton’s use of a private email server during that same period.

We learned that members of the Senate Judiciary Committee could, after months of investigation into the Russian meddling incident, recommend that the FBI investigate someone for criminal activity: the guy who compiled the infamous dossier of unconfirmed allegations about Trump-campaign collusion with the Russians in an effort to sway the election. In other words, two senior Senate Republicans are asking for an investigation of a Trump opponent, not anyone alleged to have aided the Russia effort.

We learned that Trump pushed hard for Attorney General Jeff Sessions not to recuse himself from the Justice Department’s investigations into Russian meddling — despite department attorneys making it clear to Sessions that a recusal was necessary. The rationale offered, according to the Times, was again that Sessions should work to protect Trump.

Each of these things fits into the view of presidential authority revealed in that Times interview.

The president no doubt believes, at least to some extent, that Clinton broke the law either with her email server or with the Clinton Foundation or both. Past presidents have deliberately avoided seeking prosecutions or investigations of their predecessors or political opponents (think: Obama declining to pursue the question of torture on assuming the presidency). In part, this is because of the bright line that’s drawn between the investigative powers of the Justice Department and the political desires of the person who ultimately runs it. But Trump, as he made clear to the Times, doesn’t see that line.

What’s more, Trump is a politician who is both keenly susceptible to flattery and insecure about his position. He is very aware of the fact that he only narrowly won election to the presidency, doing so despite losing the popular vote. Trump aggressively polices any idea that his victory was anything short of a demonstration of his own general aptitude at all things, and views the Russian-meddling investigations as efforts to show that he wouldn’t have won without Russian aid. It’s not clear what annoys him more: questions about whether he or people on his campaign might have criminally aided the Russian meddling efforts — or questions about the extent to which those efforts might have made the difference.

Trump also remains tightly entwined with the conservative media world that helped shape his political views. He — and much of his political base — believe in the inherent corruption of Obama and Clinton and embrace the sweeping conspiracy theories that erupt throughout the conservative media world with regularity. Of late, that’s meant embracing the idea that the dossier on Trump — which was indeed funded by the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton campaign — is a demonstration of collusion on the part of the Democrats with the Russian government (it isn’t) and a much more significant issue than any of the allegations the dossier contains.

Conservative media insistence on the importance of these issues trickles into the Republican base and puts pressure on other Republican politicians to similarly treat them as important. So we get the curious recommendation from Sens. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) and Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) that dossier author Christopher Steele be investigated for having potentially lied to the FBI about disseminating information from the dossier to the media. As our Aaron Blake wrote, this is particularly odd because “Grassley and Graham are alleging that Steele may have lied using information the Justice Department already has and had shared with them.”

All of these specifics make sense within the constructed world of the Trump presidency. But we shouldn’t miss the forest for the trees. Trump’s view of his power and the power of the Department of Justice he leads is that this power can justifiably be leveled against his political opponents. This is in part because Trump fails to understand that the allegations he’s embracing are often specious (a diet heavy in Sean Hannity will do that to you). But it’s also in part because Trump came to office with the idea that he would wield influence at the White House as he did at Trump Tower: by fiat and without question.

It was expected that the delicate-if-uneven balance of power in Washington would help guide and temper Trump’s inclinations to target his political detractors, and it has, for the most part. This week, though, we saw a number of ways in which that balance is testing — and wavering.

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Trump, Citing Pakistan as a ‘Safe Haven’ for Terrorists, Freezes Aid

January 5, 2018 by  
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“It’s hard to argue the status quo has been working, so we are looking at changing it to advance our security objectives,” said Brian H. Hook, the State Department’s director of policy planning.

Heather Nauert, the department’s spokeswoman, said the administration was still working out the precise dollar amounts that would be frozen. Though the move was months in the planning, officials said the announcement was rushed by a few days to catch up to Mr. Trump’s Twitter post on Monday, which drew a toxic reaction from Pakistan.

The move also came after considerable internal debate, officials said. The Pentagon is worried that the Pakistani government could retaliate by denying access to routes in Pakistan that it uses to supply roughly 14,000 American troops deployed in neighboring Afghanistan.

After Mr. Trump’s tweet, the foreign minister of Pakistan, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, said that there was a need to revisit the nature of its relations with the United States. In an interview with a local news network, he said the United States was acting like neither an ally nor a friend.

The suspension includes about $1.1 billion in Coalition Support Funds, which the Pentagon provides to help defray the costs of counterterrorism operations in Pakistan. Under the freeze, the United States also will not deliver military equipment to the country. It had earlier held up $255 million in State Department military financing.

Ms. Nauert said some exceptions could be made “on a case-by-case basis if determined to be critical to national security interests.” Internal government talking points that were obtained by The New York Times said the suspension was “a freeze, and does not reflect intent to reprogram funds at this time” — meaning that the money will not be diverted to other uses.

“Pakistan has the ability to get this money back in the future, but they have to take decisive action,” Ms. Nauert said.

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The administration said that the freeze did not apply to civilian assistance programs. The United States has provided Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid since 2002, a program that ramped up sharply in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks as the United States viewed Pakistan as a key ally in fighting Islamic militants.

Earlier on Thursday, the State Department announced that it had placed Pakistan on a special watch list for what it described as severe violations of religious freedoms. The designation was part of the administration’s annual accounting of violations by countries as required by the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998.

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Attacks on religious minorities have increased in Pakistan in recent years, reflecting a growing religious intolerance and driven in part by a proliferation of religious schools funded by Saudi Arabia.

The United States previously has frozen military aid without forcing a change in Pakistan’s policies. In July 2011, two months after an American commando raid that killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, the Obama administration suspended about $800 million in aid. Relations with Pakistan did not improve, and officials there have come to discount such threats.

“This is a great opening salvo, but I don’t think it is enough to make Pakistan change its behavior, unless we have a Plan B,” said C. Christine Fair, a professor who specializes in South Asia at the security studies program at Georgetown University.

Still, Ms. Fair said the scale of the administration’s action suggested it was serious about forcing a change. White House officials said they would consider further steps, including removing Pakistan from a list of major non-NATO allies of the United States — a move that would carry enormous symbolic significance for the relationship.

Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, said the decision “indicates that the administration does have a step-by-step plan to indicate to Pakistan that business as usual is no longer possible.”

While Mr. Haqqani said that Pakistan might well retaliate by shutting off ground supply routes to Afghanistan, such a move would also carry costs for the Pakistanis, since they supply many of the trucks and other logistics for the supply operation.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, speaking to reporters on Thursday, said, “We have had no indication of anything like that.”

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The administration has augured the freeze ever since Mr. Trump announced his Afghanistan strategy over the summer, in which he faulted Pakistan for failing to crack down on terrorist sanctuaries that line the border between the two countries. His language grew harsher in recent weeks. Last month, in presenting his national security strategy, Mr. Trump again singled out Pakistan. “We make massive payments every year to Pakistan,” he said. “They have to help.”

Vice President Mike Pence reinforced that message in a visit to Afghanistan just before Christmas, telling cheering American troops that “President Trump has put Pakistan on notice.”

But some analysts argued that while publicly complaining about Pakistan’s lack of action against terrorist groups may feel satisfying, such accusations were deeply counterproductive.

Richard G. Olson, a former special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan during the Obama administration, noted that the American military effort in Afghanistan was heavily reliant on Pakistan’s consent. Almost every military flight into Afghanistan, including those of attack aircraft, goes through Pakistani airspace. Most supplies travel along Pakistani roads and rails.

“Our choices in Afghanistan are already difficult, but if you want to make them even more difficult, continue to taunt the Pakistanis,” Mr. Olson said. “The Pakistanis could effectively shut down the war.”

Pakistan closed ground supply routes to Afghanistan in the months after the raid that killed Bin Laden, and those supply lines were rerouted to the northern route. But the northern route is heavily dependent on Russian consent, and with relations between Washington and Moscow deteriorating, such consent is far from assured.


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